Showing posts with label Aspen Institute. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aspen Institute. Show all posts

Saturday, March 14, 2020

At the think tanks, scientists talk coronavirus



From left, Ron Klain, Nancy Messonnier, Anthony Fauci, and Helen Branswell at the Aspen Institute, Feb. 11, 2020/Photo by Patricia Leslie

Last month at the Washington offices of the Aspen Institute, scientists, journalists, and members of the medical establishment got together to talk coronavirus which that day had received an official name for the disease from the World Health Organization, COVID-19.

On the panel was Anthony Fauci, MD, man-about-town, omnipresent television personality, and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who said the development of a vaccine for the virus would take approximately 18 months (not "very close" or "soon" as President Trump said Feb. 25, 2020).

At the time the animal which was suspected of starting it all (supposedly at an illegal "wet market" in Wuhan, China) had not been identified other than online and at the WHO website as a possible snake (a word left unsaid publicly at the Aspen that day), or a pangolin, an endangered species the Chinese like to eat and value for its supposedly medicinal qualities.

In the Q and A after the presentation, an audience member asked if the virus came from an animal, and Dr. Fauci said "likely." The animal most often now linked to the disease is the bat.

The virus, Dr. Fauci said, may have "jumped" from a bat to a cat to a human (calling Dr. Seuss), an example of a zoonotic disease originating in an animal and transferred to a human (or, vice-versa). (Wash your hands after touching animals!)

On the panel with Dr. Fauci were Ron Klain, JD, former White House ebola response coordinator; Nancy Messonnier, MD, director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Helen Branswell, infectious disease and public health reporter, STAT News, who served as moderator.
 

The scientists said studies are underway to determine the best disinfectants for surfaces to combat the disease, and on March 12, the Environmental Protection Agency (whose budget Trump proposes to slash by 26 percent), published a list of them.

Dr. Messonnier praised the military for housing the quarantine victims from cruise ships docking in California.

A panel member reported seeing on the news a group of Metro riders shunning a person of Asian descent, a practice which will lead to more discrimination in schools and other places, Mr. Klain said, speculating these incidents are likely to escalate.

John Bolton (yes that John Bolton whose book was due this month but has been delayed until May pending White House review) was Trump's ax man who, about 18 months after Trump took office, shut down the White House National Security Council's liaison for disease control, Mr. Klain said.
 

The panel seemed in a hurry to broadcast the scientific community's assessment of coronavirus and its dangers to the world.

Dr. Fauci said staff from the Centers for Disease Control, Health and Human Services, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Security Council, scientists, and doctors talk daily and sometimes more than once a day.

Said Dr. Fauci: Multiple generations have coronavirus, and people need to be warned about the risks. "It's relatively likely it will come here."



"It's not a feasible policy to quarantine, " said Mr. Klain, urging that responses to the outbreak come from the scientific and medical communities rather than policy wonks. "It's a bit of a mixed bag to prepare the U.S." for the disease. "Public leaders need to get on top of this," he said.  Getting Congress to allocate money to prepare hospitals will be "a challenge."
 
Dr. Fauci said more information from China was urgently needed, but the Chinese then were not cooperating: "We really need to know the scope of this," Dr. Fauci said.

Dr. Messonnier said the scientific and medical communities wanted to slow the spreading illness and to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic (which according to Merriam-Webster, occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population, and one month later, here we are).

She issued the usual admonitions to avoid disease: Wash hands (to the tune of "Happy Birthday"), etc., and to scattered laughter, said: "There's only so much worrying we can do, right?"

"We live in a connected world," Mr. Klain said, with people and goods arriving daily from outside the U.S. According to Dr. Fauci, It's "an impossibility" to keep out all the Chinese who want to come here since 22,000 of them enter the U.S. every day.

Dr. Fauci said travel bans will "never" exclude all Chinese from entering the U.S., and bans make no sense if the illness is already here, which it most certainly is.

Travel bans only "buy a window of time"
for delay. 
 
Dr. Messonnier said it will take a year to develop a vaccine which, Dr. Fauci added, usually takes six to eight years.
 

Coronavirus can be "really serious" for the older population and those with underlying illnesses, Dr. Messonnier said.
 

"We are taking this very, very seriously. The situation can change," Dr. Fauci said.

Mr. Klain: "If it gets worse, it will reflect on health care.'

The pharmaceutical companies take big risks that the vaccines they develop won't work, noted Dr. Fauci, but lest anyone forget, "big pharma" makes big money, reminded a member of the audience.

Except in the cases of ill persons and health care workers, panel members said face masks were almost totally unnecessary, and no one In the packed Aspen house of attorneys, physicians, journalists, and interested onlookers wore one.

It was not until the beginning of this year that the panelists were aware of the disease which, for some victims, begins with pneumonia.
 

At the time of the panel presentation, 43,000 had been struck by the disease, with 13 of them in the U.S. Today the worldwide number is 169,610 with 3,782 in the U.S. Deaths number 6,518.

In testimony before the U.S. Congress last week, Dr. Fauci said the coronavirus was ten times as lethal as the seasonal flu.

Last month Trump proposed cutting the NIH budget by seven percent and the National Science Foundation by six percent, which includes a reduced number of grants for research. Also, he wants to cut the CDC budget by 16 percent and HHS, almost 10 percent. At the same time he proposes to increase money for "wall" construction by $2 billion for 82 miles to make it the most expensive wall in the world.

Is it safe to conclude that Trump values things more than he values people?

Maybe, the bats have come home to bite Mr. Trump.

patricialesli@gmail.com