Assassinate Putin? Discuss

 

Olena Zelenska, the first lady of Ukraine, accepted the Dissident Human Rights Award at the Victims of Communism Annual Captive Nations Summit held at the Victims of Communism Museum, July 19, 2022/Photo by Patricia Leslie

The question was posed to a panel at the Victims of Communism Annual Captive Nations Summit last month at its new museum in Washington.

Peter Humphrey who identified himself as a former diplomat asked the question.

For a few seconds, stunned silence filled the room. The 50 or so in attendance wondered if they had heard correctly.

They had.

Finally, panel member Marek Jan Chodakiewicz, blurted out the obvious: Do you mean, kill Putin?

Yes was the reply.

Olena Zelenska, the first lady of Ukraine, second from right, with officials from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation including, from left, Ambassador Andrew Bremberg, Edwin J. Fuelner, and Ambassador Aldona Wos at the Victims of Communism Captive Nations Summit held at the Victims of Communism Museum, July 19, 2022/Photo by Patricia Leslie

After a few seconds of silence, Mr. Chodakiewicz said an assassination really wouldn't achieve anything since the Russian government would just pick up the pieces and continue.

Eliminating Putin means someone else would step in and take over, and not necessarily for the better.

Brian Whitmore, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and another panel member, agreed. At least, Putin is a known quantity, more or less.

Panel members from left, Brian Whitmore, Michael Sawkiw Jr., Marek Jan Chodakiewicz, and Milda Boyce, moderator, at the Victims of Communism Captive Nations Summit, July 19, 2022/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the event, the first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, was present to receive the Dissident Human Rights Award, and she spoke briefly before leaving for the White House and a meeting with President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden.

In a somber mood, Ms. Zelenska, in her remarks, renewed focus on those fighting communism, denouncing Joseph Stalin's legacy which must not be permitted to continue.

On the panel, Mr. Chodakiewicz noted that Ukraine is not drawing as much attention in Europe as expected.

"Spain is more concerned about the invasion from Africa" than Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Chodakiewicz is a Polish-American historian who specializes in Central European history of the 19th and 20th centuries and teaches at Patrick Henry College and the Institute of World Politics.

He said Kazakstan, Poland, Belarus and more are on Putin's "menu."The "land bridge" to Crimea allows Putin's "incrementalism" and although Putin knows he's not immortal, he has no incentive to stop his aggression, but perhaps he may move "more slowly."

No one is calling for the destruction of Russia.

Also on the panel was Michael Sawkiw, Jr., a member of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America Executive Board, who said Russia denies the facts, makes war and claims victory.

"Putin will never negotiate until he has to negotiate." Putin has noted how he wants to emulate Peter the Great. (Watch out, Baltics!)

Whitmore said this coming December will be the centennial anniversary of the founding of the Soviet Union. In 1922, the West was "not engaged." It's a very different world now. 

Putin is "very cognizant of the anniversary and he would like nothing more than to put Russia back" the way it was. Georgia is on his radar, too.

"We're kind of in 1947 and everybody's got to watch their backs."

The Victims of Communism Memorial Statue at the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

The Victims of Communism Museum has several small galleries with artifacts and photographs devoted to the message of fighting communism/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

On the second panel Hyun-seung Lee, Ambassador Martin Palous, and John Suarez addressed "The Lessons of Ukraine for Captive Nations Around the World" with Carlos Ponce, moderating.

They talked about North Korea, Cuba, and other nations where freedom is unknown.

"Freedom is not free," Lee said. If you don't fight for freedom, it will not survive.

Ambassador Paula Dobriansky is a VOC trustee and the daughter of former Ambassador Lev Dobriansky, chairman emeritus of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation which hosted the event.

She sent a video message that the VOC Foundation "stands in solidarity with the nations around the world held captive by communism."

Those nations were identified as China, Iran, Cuba, Vietnam, Laos, North Korea and possibly, Ethiopia.

Ambassador Dobriansky said that victims of communism will not be forgotten, but "let us recommit ourselves to the defense and promotion of individual liberty."

At the Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

At the close of the gathering and before lunch, five members of the Carpathia Folk Dance Ensemble dressed in native Eastern European costumes and waving colorful floral wreaths, entertained attendees with graceful dancing.

The Victims of Communism Museum opened June 13, 2022 and is a $40 million project supported by the nations of Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, among others.

On its website, the museum says it is dedicated to the estimated 100 million people killed by the murderous ideology in the past century, as well as to the 1.5 billion others still living under its jackboot.

The Victims of Communism Museum/Photo by Patricia Leslie

What: Victims of Communism Museum

Where: 900 15th St., NW, Washington, D.C., across the street from McPherson Square.

When: Monday - Friday, 9 a.m. - 3 p.m.

Cost: No charge

Metro station: McPherson Square

For more information: info@victimsofcommunism.org(202) 629-9500

patricialesli@gmail.com

Post-Putin Russia

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny on Tverskaya Street, Moscow, Mar. 26, 2017/Wikipedia

Navalny, the film, was the subject of a program last week at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute. 

Other topics came up.

The Kennan's Izabella Tabarovsky  moderated discussion of the "thriller," as she called it, with Leonid Volkov, Alexei Navalny's former chief of staff, and  Maria Pevchikh, head of investigations for the Anti-Corruption Foundation. 

Navalny established the Foundation in 2011 which the Moscow City Court extinguished last June.

Ms. Pevchikh urged that sanctions on Russia remain: "Putin should not be able to get away with what he did."

"Keep pushing until the outcome is there."

Putin should be subjected to [a special] tribunal. 

A former ambassador to/from (?) Moldova asked the panel how to avoid now the "illusion" experienced in the 1990s that the Soviet Union would become more democratic after the nation's 1989 upheaval.

Mr. Volkov said, "we do not know."  It makes no sense to speculate until Putin is gone.  When Stalin died, it took three years to figure out his successor.  All his lieutenants started killing each other.  Right now, none of Putin's lieutenants are strong enough to become a leader. They are all very weak, hating each other.  It  will take three years at least to sort things out. No one knows the lieutenants.

Ms. Pevchikh: No one knows either, the exact number of Russians who have died in the war.  If you trust the government, the number is one to two thousand.  Russia's evening news about Ukraine lasts about 58 minutes. As far as the Russian ship sinking in mid-April, "they" just said "it went down and there was a fire." 

"A Russian soldier's life is worth nothing to Putin," Ms. Pevchikh said.  He has made the Russians think their sons' lives are nothing since "a life is worth sacrificing."

Only the poorest get conscripted, and so far, Putin is quite successful...at home.

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At the think tanks: Dr. Fiona Hill

Fiona Hill/Wilson Center

Yes, that Fiona Hill. The one who testified at Trump's impeachment trial.

A former member of the National Security Council (2017-2019), she is a senior fellow at Brookings who spoke last week on a webcast hosted by the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 


Kennan director, Matthew Rojansky, led the discussion in a program titled: The Putin Profile: A Conversation with Dr. Fiona Hill.

Fiona Hill, center left, next to John Bolton, then U.S. National Security Advisor, meeting with Vladimir Putin, across the table, and other Russian leaders at the Kremlin, June 27, 2018/Wikimedia Commons, Kremlin.ru, CC

Vladimir Putin has practically sucked all the "oxygen" out of Russia with his international agenda and his neglect of domestic affairs, Dr. Hill began her talk. Hence, demonstrations throughout Russia (particularly in the Far East).

"Soviet times" had many more "checks and balances," but since 2000, Putin has become "the state."

Rather than paying attention to Russia, Putin focuses on the world at large, vying to become an "elder statesman." He wants to regain Russia's "seat at the table" and get Russia back in the mix as a great power with big global ambitions which explains his interest in Syria, Venezuela, Libya, the Middle East, and Africa. 

"'Hey!'" Putin says (quoting Dr. Hill): "'We've still got the ability to project force" and "be at the table."

He's "obsessed" with the U.S., but this "mud wrestling" does not advance his program.

One of the reasons Putin's leadership role in Russia was extended until possibly 2036 by approval last month of constitutional amendments, is because he was (is?) "increasingly seen as a "'lame duck.'"

"Where are all the fresh ideas?" to make Russia great? Perpetual cycles of conflict are "not very helpful." 

Answering a question from a viewer about Trump's  re-election, Dr. Hill said Putin has more to gain by "upsetting America" and "sowing discord" which will be more difficult for Russia to achieve if there's a large voter turnout in the U.S.

"It's clear he wants to see a weaker U.S. president no matter who he (sic) is." A "fairly diminished U.S. president" will be good for Russia. 

"The more we're in a fight with Russia," she said (she became a U.S. citizen in 2002), "the less we can focus on bigger issues."  Arms control is a "necessary endeavor."

The "heavy breathing" and "hysteria we have" in the U.S. about Russia cannot compare to what "we" should be focusing on when it comes to China.

She has met Putin several times and "in some respects, what you see is someone who's grown much more comfortable" in his role(s).

"He's decided to put on many faces," a man "who has thought a lot about his brand" (which threatens to grow stale), riding shirtless on a horse. All these actions "appear deliberate to signal his vigor to the rest of the world, because, 'Hey! Don't mess with me!'" is the message he tries to convey.

She was not saying, she emphasized, that "he's lost his edge," but he's "kind of lost [with] what's going on domestically."  

Mentioned several times during the conversation was her book, Mr. Putin: Operative at the Kremlin (2013), co-authored with Clifford Gaddy.

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At the think tanks: Czar for life?

Vladimir Putin, Feb. 20, 2020/Wikimedia, Kremlin


A tour guide in Moscow laughed when I bought a magnet at a gift shop with Vladimir Putin on one side and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president from 2008 to 2012, on the other side. With a gradual turning of the magnet, the pictures morphed into likenesses of each man.

"Putin will be premier for life," the tour guide joked. Seven years later, and it looks like she may be right.

Vladimir Putin meeting with permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, July 17, 2020/Kremlin

On July 1, 2020 Russian voters amended their constitution giving Putin the right to run for office in 2024 and extend his reign as Russia's president until 2036 when he'll be 84 years old.
 
Writes Oksana Antonenko in a report this month titled Winning the Referendum and Losing Legitimacy in Putin’s Russia:

"Once again [referring to the 1991 referendum], over 77 percent of voters (according to official results) voted in favour of the proposed package of 206 amendments. The large number of amendments was deliberately intended to disguise their true intent: to abolish the term limit for President Putin and to allow him to run again in 2024."*
 
Dr. Antonenko is a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars' Kennan Institute and based in Cambridge, U.K.

Last week at the Kennan in a Facebook live talk, scholars Eric Lohr from American University and Matthew Rojansky, Kennan director, discussed Mr. Putin's reign, What Two More Presidential Terms Mean for Putin’s Legacy.Without a hint of sarcasm, they referred to Putin throughout the presentation as "czar" .

If Putin makes it to 2036, Dr. Rojansky said, he will have served as Russia's leader longer than Joseph Stalin and Catherine the Great. (Ivan the Great, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, were named, too, in different contexts.)

Dr. Lohr laughed when Dr. Rojansky asked him to project the likelihood of Putin making it to 2036: A lot can happen between now and then, he said. Events have a way of "suddenly turning."

In its 1000 year history, only two Russian leaders have retired from office before they died. (Test: Who were they?**) "Counter-acting forces" Dr. Lohr hinted, will likely end Mr. Putin's reign before 2036.


Dr. Lohr described Russian youth as "pretty apolitical now," but the Russian scene can change quickly and this group can "become something very powerful."  

Dr. Lohr noted that in France Napoleon won the title of consulate for life, but things didn't exactly work out that way.
 
Putin is able to blame local governments for most problems in Russia, said Rojansky, since nothing bad happens because of the president (paraphrasing Putin's nuances), ensuring his tenure, at least, for the time being.

Lohr explained that Russia's oligarchs want to keep Putin in office since they rely on him for their wellbeing and who wants to start all over and train someone new?
 
“It’s not just Putin’s will that matters here: it’s those with wealth, the so-called oligarchs, around him. They have an enormous amount to lose if he were to go, because then someone new would come in and redistribute wealth and power and etcetera. So I think it’s just as important that they are unwilling to see him go, but divining what his true intentions are is something that is beyond I think the skills of any of us Kremlin watchers.”

There's not a legitimate means to transfer Putin's power.

Most Russians today, Dr. Lohr said, are not thinking too much about politics: They are thinking about their mortgages, their children's schooling, and the economy. (For the past two months, Russia has sold more gold than natural gas, a first.)
Putin is "riding the nationalist tiger," said Lohr, especially after the Crimean invasion. A "turning point" can ignite "a sudden turn" in the environment.
 
The most important lesson to be learned from 1917, the start of the Russian revolution, Dr. Lohr said: "Never do it again."

Past czars had tradition and religion "on their side" but Putin has neither.

Answering a question from a viewer, Lohr said it was difficult to know if Putin holds more assets and is the richest person in the world. One of the new constitutional amendments passed prohibits elected leaders from holding foreign bank accounts, but it is suspected that a lot of Putin's wealth is tied up in other names, accounts, groups, funds, etc.
 
Dr. Lohr noted the Russians were "angered" that Russia was not invited to the 75th anniversary of the D-Day commemoration last year.

According to Dr. Lohr, "violence is usually a last resort" that governments use since it is a sign of weakness, not strength. (Writer's note: Portland, Oregon.)

When asked to cite good books to read, Dr. Lohr laughed and said he likes to get away from politics because "it's so depressing," but he is reading great Russian literature again, specifically, The Brothers Karamazov, this time with his son.

*Proposed amendments included acknowledging God, enshrining a minimum wage, banning same sex marriage, strengthening the powers of the State Duma, and banning territorial concessions.

**Yeltsin and Khrushchev

The grave of Nikita Khrushchev (1894-1971). See Khrushchev's  bust in the center of the tombstone. Novodevichy Cemetery, Moscow/Photo by Patricia Leslie

The grave of Boris Yeltsin (1931-2007) at Novodevichy Cemetery, Moscow/Photo by Patricia Leslie

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