A tour guide in Moscow laughed when I bought a magnet at a gift shop with Vladimir Putin on one side and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president from 2008 to 2012, on the other side. With a gradual turning of the magnet, the pictures morphed into likenesses of each man.
"Putin will be premier for life," the tour guide joked. Seven years later, and it looks like she may be right.
On July 1, 2020 Russian voters amended their constitution giving Putin the right to run for office in 2024 and extend his reign as Russia's president until 2036 when he'll be 84 years old.
Writes Oksana Antonenko in a report this month titled Winning the Referendum and Losing Legitimacy in Putin’s Russia:
"Once again [referring to the 1991 referendum], over 77 percent of voters (according to official results) voted in favour of the proposed package of 206 amendments. The large number of amendments was deliberately intended to disguise their true intent: to abolish the term limit for President Putin and to allow him to run again in 2024."*
Dr. Antonenko is a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars' Kennan Institute and based in Cambridge, U.K.
Last week at the Kennan in a Facebook live talk, scholars Eric Lohr from American University and Matthew Rojansky, Kennan director, discussed Mr. Putin's reign, What Two More Presidential Terms Mean for Putin’s Legacy.Without a hint of sarcasm, they referred to Putin throughout the presentation as "czar" .
If Putin makes it to 2036, Dr. Rojansky said, he will have served as Russia's leader longer than Joseph Stalin and Catherine the Great. (Ivan the Great, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, were named, too, in different contexts.)
Dr. Lohr laughed when Dr. Rojansky asked him to project the likelihood of Putin making it to 2036: A lot can happen between now and then, he said. Events have a way of "suddenly turning."
In its 1000 year history, only two Russian leaders have retired from office before they died. (Test: Who were they?**) "Counter-acting forces" Dr. Lohr hinted, will likely end Mr. Putin's reign before 2036.
Dr. Lohr described Russian youth as "pretty apolitical now," but the Russian scene can change quickly and this group can "become something very powerful."
Dr. Lohr noted that in France Napoleon won the title of consulate for life, but things didn't exactly work out that way.
Putin is able to blame local governments for most problems in Russia, said Rojansky, since nothing bad happens because of the president (paraphrasing Putin's nuances), ensuring his tenure, at least, for the time being.
Lohr explained that Russia's oligarchs want to keep Putin in office since they rely on him for their wellbeing and who wants to start all over and train someone new?
“It’s not just Putin’s will that matters here: it’s those with wealth, the so-called oligarchs, around him. They have an enormous amount to lose if he were to go, because then someone new would come in and redistribute wealth and power and etcetera. So I think it’s just as important that they are unwilling to see him go, but divining what his true intentions are is something that is beyond I think the skills of any of us Kremlin watchers.”
There's not a legitimate means to transfer Putin's power.
Most Russians today, Dr. Lohr said, are not thinking too much about politics: They are thinking about their mortgages, their children's schooling, and the economy. (For the past two months, Russia has sold more gold than natural gas, a first.)
Putin is "riding the nationalist tiger," said Lohr, especially after the Crimean invasion. A "turning point" can ignite "a sudden turn" in the environment.
The most important lesson to be learned from 1917, the start of the Russian revolution, Dr. Lohr said: "Never do it again."
Past czars had tradition and religion "on their side" but Putin has neither.
Answering a question from a viewer, Lohr said it was difficult to know if Putin holds more assets and is the richest person in the world. One of the new constitutional amendments passed prohibits elected leaders from holding foreign bank accounts, but it is suspected that a lot of Putin's wealth is tied up in other names, accounts, groups, funds, etc.
Dr. Lohr noted the Russians were "angered" that Russia was not invited to the 75th anniversary of the D-Day commemoration last year.
According to Dr. Lohr, "violence is usually a last resort" that governments use since it is a sign of weakness, not strength. (Writer's note: Portland, Oregon.)
When asked to cite good books to read, Dr. Lohr laughed and said he likes to get away from politics because "it's so depressing," but he is reading great Russian literature again, specifically, The Brothers Karamazov, this time with his son.
*Proposed amendments included acknowledging God, enshrining a minimum wage, banning same sex marriage, strengthening the powers of the State Duma, and banning territorial concessions.
**Yeltsin and Khrushchev
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